Today is the anniversary of the 1979 “Islamic Revolution” in Iran.
International tensions are running high about Iranian “intentions” as it continues its program to enrich uranium — for completely legal civilian purposes, Iranian officials continue to insist, while the U.S. says “prove it”.
[Ahmedinejad gives his answer below...]
A protracted Iranian negotiation is still continuing about whether or not it will agree to send some of its approximately 3.5 to 5 percent enriched uranium (used to operate nuclear reactors which produce energy) outside Iran for further enrichment up to nearly 20 percent level, which is apparently what is needed for medical purposes.
International nerves are beginning to crack, and the U.S. imposed further financial sanctions on Wednesday, while diplomats are speculating about (and apparently trying to find out) whether or not China is becoming less opposed to further UN Security Council measures.
China Hand (Peter Lee) wrote on his fascinating China Matters blog yesterday that “Iran may have hoped that China would step into the nuclear dispute on its side, perhaps by agreeing to serve as middleman for the fuel exchange. It looks like they’ll be disappointed. But today Beijing also sent the message that U.S.-Chinese relations would suffer another blow from an aggressive Western push on Iran coupled with a demand that China knuckle under and support sanctions. The lead editorial in Global Times–the international affairs organ of People’s Daily and therefore an indication of the attitude of the Chinese leadership– made the point that China resents being ‘taken hostage’ by either side in the Iran crisis. It sends some heat Iran’s way (though it will be clear from the remarks of China’s ex-ambassador to Iran quoted below, China believes that Iran is open to concessions), but the main object of criticism is the United States. It is clear that China has decided to take the whole American ‘you gotta sanction Iran’ approach as another episode (following the disastrous falling-out at Copenhagen) in which the United States is happy to employ wedge issues against China, not only to advance its immediate goals, but to isolate China and reduce its standing as a global power. If the United States continues to take a hard line on China joining Iran sanctions, instead of backing off and continuing negotiations, China will take it as a conscious, hostile act against China”. Further on in this post, China Hand reports that the People’s Daily interviewed China’s ex-ambassador to Iran, Hua Liming, and “Ambassador Hua told the paper that the main purpose of Iran’s declaration of its intention to purify its uranium to near 20% was to put pressure on the West and particularly the United States. Only a week before, Ahmedinejad had…stated that Iran was prepared to accept the UN nuclear fuel exchange agreement…indicating that Iran still hoped to reach an agreement with the IAEA, but that the exchange terms had to be beneficial to Iran. Previously, the IAEA proposal called for Iran to ship its fuel to Russia, where it would be refined to 20%. Afterwards, the fuel would be shipped to France and fabricated into fuel rods. This span of time would be 12 months. Iran clearly was worried about the 12-month limit and had expressed a hope that the time be reduced to four to five months. However, the Western countries refused. Under these circumstances, Iran adopted a relatively unyielding attitude … Ambassador Hua stated, ‘Unyielding’ only is one side of the coin…the other side, ‘Concessions’, still exists. Iran has already indicated its attitude that it will accept the IAEA plan. In general, Iran still hopes for nuclear negotiations and would not lightly close the door to negotiations”. This post can be read in full here.
China Hand explained in a previous post the day before that “According to Haaretz: Ahmadinejad said on Tuesday Iran was now prepared to send low-enriched uranium (LEU) abroad before getting reactor fuel back. Before, Tehran insisted on small swaps on its own soil. That would defeat the draft plan’s purpose of reducing Iran’s total LEU reserve below the quantity required to set off an atomic bomb, if it were refined to high purity. As noted below, China is perhaps the only major power that Iran could rely upon to conduct an offshore swap. Wonder if China will rise to the bait … During a February 9, 2009 press briefing, a spokesperson for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs praised China’s ever more important role on the world stage. He also stated, according to Phoenix TV’s correspondent on the scene: If China was willing, Iran could consider conducting the nuclear fuel exchange through China. The nuclear fuel exchange refers to a proposed confidence-building deal between Iran and the West that has basically turned into a confidence-demolition deal. The IAEA proposed that Iran ship most of its declared low-enriched uranium (LEU) to Russia for enrichment to 20%; then the Russians would ship the fuel to France for fabrication into rods and return the rods to Iran so it could make medical isotopes in its Tehran Research Reactor. Theory was that Iran would get out of the uranium enrichment business and the world could find something else to worry about. However, U.S. engagement with Iran, like so many other nice things the Obama administration had planned, went off the tracks, thanks in part to the large anti-government demonstrations following last year’s dubious presidential election in Iran. Understandably, the Iranians worried that, if they sent their uranium overseas to Russia (which has started to side with the U.S. on Iran issues) and France, they might never get it back, and they reportedly proposed some deal that would involve incremental exchanges of enriched material for their LEU. The result was a lot of huffing and puffing from the West about Iranian bad faith and a concerted drive for new Iran sanctions. China is the only member of the P5 (Security Council + Germany) clearly resistant to new sanctions. The Iran offer can be seen as 1) an effort to get China involved on its side 2) a recognition that China is the one party that would reliably return their uranium. The offer didn’t come up in China’s MOFA Feb. 9 presser. On the Iran issue, the Chinese spokesperson stated: We hope and support that the concerned parties can achieve a unanimity of views on the IAEA’s draft agreement for supply of fuel to the Teheran Research Reactor. This would contribute to the favorable resolution of the Iran nuclear question. The Chinese, like the rest of the world, are probably waiting to see if the Iranian government can keep the lid on the demonstrations everybody’s hyping for February 11. If the Iranian government works its authoritarian magic on the demonstrators, I believe China will maintain its current position of negotiations and no sanctions. If the wheels come off and Iran heads for a period of serious political instability, China will simply keep its head down until the clear winner emerges”. This earlier posting can be read in full here.
In any case, a big celebration is underway in Tehran today. Al-Jazeera International TV is now broadcasting live a speech from Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad.
He began in a touching, reconciliatory way: “Human beings are connected to each other all around the world”.
Then he moved into what is usually called the “defiant” mode, referring to the world powers as being: “against the progress of Iran — they want the Iranian people to be backward, and to be under the rule of ignorant dictators all the time. They do not want to see the Iranian people free and independent … They are against the pure Mohammedian [sic - translator's exact word] Islam practiced in Iran which would be the basis for the progress of Iran in the area. They want to impose hegemony, and they see Iran as an obstacle to fulfilling their intentions. The Iranian people are a proud people … but they want to stop our progress, and with their double and triple standards … They want to control people all over the world. This is a modern slavery. Before the two superpowers divided the whole world into two parts … and people had to be in one or the other, but both had the same purpose — to erase the peoples of the worlds beliefs. They don’t respect friendship and loyalty or human virtue and have replaced it with cheating and lies. Last year more than 120 million were killed under beautiful slogans and a few millions were homeless, while 80 percent of the people of the world are living in absolute poverty … With their arms race, nuclear bombs, atomic bombs they control the whole world … By the grace of God … during a short time, we could get rid of Marxism and communism and those ideologies have gone into history and no longer exist (CHINA???) (cheers ) By the grace of God, the Western wing of this power is reaching a deadlock in politis in economy in culture and even in military power, and they are now begging, and they are now at the end of their hegemony, and by God’s will those bad powers will be toppled. … They are now at the end of their rule, and look at what the Iranian people have achieved in the past 31 years. We were a people who just got rid of colonialism and dictatorship, and just testing the freedom and happiness, and we were in absolute poverty. We did not have any position in the international community politically or economically … we were a forgotten people, an incapable people … therefore they worked hard and tried hard, but by God’s grace and by the consensus and agreement of the people of Iran and the path and rule of the Imam we could foil their attempts. Look where we are now”.
Where is Iran now? Ahmedinejad then made his annual announcement: “Today I am proud to announce that our scientists are using the laser technology in all aspects of the requirments of the Iranian people – (crowd breaks into chants, including “Allahu akbar”) – It is the beginning of the scientific revolution in Iran, all aspects of science, physics, mathematics … Everyday there is a new invention, a new creation, that is brought out by the Iranian people”.
Ahmedinejad said (via Al-Jazeera translator) that Iran had “become a nuclear power… and in Geneva [I think he meant Vienna, where the IAEA is located] they said they would like to cooperate … in the agency all members are obliged to share 20 percent enriched fuel … we said we want to keep our own nuclear fuel … they said they will pay for it … we said, no problem, we will calculate everything that goes in and out and keep what we need, but they said no we want all of it, we will enrich it, and we will give you back what you want …They said no, we have to send all our material out then they will offer us what we need .. they think they will stop us from making our atomic bomb, but that is a foolish thinking. We said we do not believe you and history shows us we cannot rely on you. They started making a lot of problems and contacted the international agency … which said they are not allowed to put conditions — They think the Iranian people have become weak and they are capable of imposing their conditions upon Iran. They say they prefer to wait until the Iranian people are ready to accept their conditions. That shows their bad attitude — we have our rights not to trust them, not to depend on them. Then they issued an ultimatum. We said the Iranian people will never accept the imposing any conditions and will not obey what is imposed. We told them we are going to use the more-enriched 20 percent] reactor fuel for medical purposes to produce medicine, therefore we do not have enough time, we have to prepare our own fuel”…
Then, another announcement: “I am proud to announce that the production of 20 percent has already begun: the head of our agency announced that the first production of 20 percent fuel has already been prepared and we are now using it (cheers)”…
Ahmedinejad continued: “They say the Iranian people do not listen — America is prepared to help with the 20 percent fuel. We said ok, but without conditions … It is not us who have a problem, it is you who have to correct yourself. They said you should not produce nuclear medicine. We said what’s wrong with that? We can produce it, and you can buy it. What’s wrong with that?” (cheers) “We are producing in Natanz every day a few kilos a day, and in the near future we will soon produce three times more” …
This is still far from the production of weapons-grade uranium, which must be enriched to 80 percent or more [probably to even more -- 90, or even 93 percent].
Ahmedinejad added: “Is is possible to produce an atomic/nuclear bomb under the supervision of the IAEA? … Even in Natanz we are capable of producing higher than 20 percent enrichment [he did not specify that Iran could enrich up to 80 percent, as some news reports suggested immediately after this speech], but we are not producing atomic bomb … if you do not know that, then you can invite certain good scientists to explain that to you, because whatever we do is under the supervision of the Agency (IAEA). Our people are so brave that if we want to produce an atomic bomb, it will frankly and clearly declare that it wants to produce that … When we say we don’t produce it, that means we don’t produce it … You think your atomic bomb will save you, so keep thinking that way… We hope you will regret it … We are against your plundering of the world, against your way of dealing with the world, your inhuman attitude. We are brave, we hope you will become brave like us. You want to take over the whole region, but the people of Iran will never allow that. Everyone should know that is what they want: They want to take control of the whole region, and we will never allow that … You try to create disputes between the people of the whole world”.
The Iranian president noted that due to the stance of Iran, against colonialism, the people of the world are aware of what is happening. “I declare officially that the time of the superpowers is arriving at its end”, he told the large, disciplined, enthusiastic crowd.
Both the government and the opposition have called for a large turnout at public events marking this 31st anniversary of the Islamic Revolution…
Cyrus Safdari wrote on his Iran Affairs blog yesterday Iran has been making its own medical isotopes for a long time now. Indeed, the reactor that the Iranians want to make 20% enriched fuel for (TRR or Tehran Research Reactor) and which is used to make the medical isotopes was built in 1967, during the Shah’s time, with the assistance and cooperation of the US (the US also provided the initial batch of 93% weapons-grade, highly-enriched uranium fuel to operate it.) Iran’s plans to make medical isotopes is thus simply a continuation of a long pre-existing capacity and not something new cooked up by Ahmadinejad as part of a secret plot to make nukes. In fact, the Iranians did not want to enrich uranium to 20% to power the reactor — no, as Flint Leverett points out, they first offered to purchase the finished fuel for the reactor on the open market, as they have done in the past (they last purchased the fuel from Argentina in the 1980s, which also helped Iran convert the reactor to one that uses 19% enriched uranium rather than weapons-grade 93% enriched uranium.) The US swap deal offer was made after Iran attempted to acquire the finished fuel … Second, regarding the “more efficient” claim, as Juan Cole points out, Iran’s announcement that it would make its own reactor fuel to make its own medical isotopes is quite logical, quoting Jeffrey Lewis of the New America Foundation: ‘Iran has developed plans to use naturally occurring uranium as a “target” for producing an important medical diagnostic isotope of molybdenum, an isotope whose decay product can be used to scan for cancers in bone, heart, lung, and kidney. Iran already imports a sizable quantity of this pharmacological radionuclide but producing it indigenously would not only save Iran a considerable amount of money each year, much more than it would pay for the fuel for the reactor it would use to produce it, but also allow a more efficient use of this short lived isotope by preventing the decay of nearly half of the amount bought before it even reached the patients. Perhaps the biggest incentive indigenous production of 99Mo in Iran would be the encouragement of its entire nuclear medicine infrastructure; an infrastructure that might right the imbalance of medical isotopes into this developing country relative to other nations.” ‘ Though Juan Cole didn’t quote it, Jeffrey Lewis also writes in the same article: ‘It costs Iran about a $1 million per annum to import its current needs for diagnostic 99Mo. About half of that is “wasted” in transit as the molybdenum decays, an amount that could be saved if the isotope was produced locally… The real benefit to Iran for completing this deal, however, will not be the savings of a few million dollars or even the savings of nearly half the imported diagnostic radioisotopes from unavoidable wastage due to decays during shipment. The real savings will be the foot up Iran gets in its health care from starting to develop its own nuclear medicine industry. The discrepancy between the use of diagnostic isotopes in Iran and the developed world can, and should, be dramatically reduced; as it should for the entire world. Finally, regarding the myth that Iran “first accepted, then rejected” the uranium swap agreement: Iran explicitly said that they agreed only “in principle” to the idea of the swap but have made suggestions to firm-up the guarantees that the US would actually meet its obligations under the deal by, for example, suggesting that uranium should be swapped in batches. The negotiations are continuing and so the offer has not been “rejected”. Again, as Flint Leverette points out, the Iranians did not reject it, and the US is the one which has been intransigent by insisting on a “take it or leave it” approach… which as I have written before only proves that the US offer was probably yet another poison-pill MEANT to be not accepted by Iran in order to portray Iran as being hell-bent on making nukes… [UPDATE: a kind reader points out: 'The US is not in a position to "help" Iran obtain the medical isotopes. Diplomatic conflicts aside, this is the worst time in history to obtain molybdenum-99, since the world's main suppliers -- the problem-ridden NRU reactor (Chalk River, Canada) and HFR reactor (Petten, Netherlands) -- are both shut down for major maintenance. Those reactors were producing near 2/3 of the world supply of molybdenum-99 early last year. There is almost nothing the U.S. can do to help, since it has no domestic source of molybdenum-99]. This information can be read in full here.
By the end of the anniversary day in Iran, it was clear that although some major opposition figures were arrested early in the day, Ahmadinejad’s speech was bigger news, and the situation did not get out of control, under a massive security deployment.
AP reported that “Opposition Web sites spoke of groups of protesters in the hundreds, compared to much larger crowds in past demonstrations. One protester told The Associated Press she had tried to join the demonstrations but soon left in disappointment. ‘There were 300 of us, maximum 500. Against 10,000 people’, she told an AP reporter outside Iran. She said there were few clashes … Another protester insisted the opposition had come out in significant numbers, but ‘the problem was that we were not able to gather in one place because they (security forces) were very violent’.” This AP report can be read in full here.
Meanwhile, Ali Akbar Salehi, head of Iran’s nuclear program, said in an interview with Al-Jazeera International that Iran is “capable” of enriching uranium to the degree that it wants — 100 or 200 percent, he said, and he added that Iran has the perfect right to do so if it implements the IAEA safeguards agreements. In the interview, Salehi also asked U.S. President Obama to please not make any wrong step, or to challenge Iran, because the consequences would be unimaginable, he said.
Article from UN-Truth read more here
